Domino of secessions in Britain: Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland look toward the exit - Something that benefits Russia

Scotland may bring the issue of a new referendum for its independence from the United Kingdom back to the forefront. The issue was reignited after the local elections, in which nationalists, who actively support secession, recorded a significant victory in the autonomous region. Experts who spoke to NEWS.ru estimate that the political processes currently underway in the country could, under certain conditions, lead even to the breakup of Britain into separate states. The question is when such a thing could happen and why a potential "parade of sovereignties" would serve the interests of Russia.

A new referendum in Scotland? The pressure on London is increasing

The Parliament of Scotland voted in favor of holding a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. On May 26, the majority of members—72 in favor versus 55 against—supported the initiative of the First Minister of Scotland, John Swinney, who called on the British government to give the "green light" for the process. John Swinney asked London to issue an order based on Section 30 of the Scotland Act of 1998, so that the authority to organize the vote could be transferred to Edinburgh. He is a known supporter of Scotland's independence and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP).

In early May, his party won 58 seats in the regional elections, while on May 19, Swinney was re-elected First Minister. He had, in fact, announced his intention to bring back the issue of the referendum as early as late April. Political scientist Ruslan Pankratov, speaking to NEWS.ru, did not rule out the possibility of a new referendum. As he estimated, Edinburgh will continue to "pressure" the central government, while London will attempt to gain time and turn the vote into a subject of political negotiation and not a matter of right. "The Scots could theoretically leave the United Kingdom. They have a chance. However, this can only succeed under one condition: if the referendum is recognized by London and the European Union. Without international recognition, their independence could evolve into a new Catalan crisis, with an unrecognized republic," the expert noted.

Why Scotland wants to leave the United Kingdom

Over the last 50 years, Scotland has held three referendums: two for greater autonomy and one for full independence. None, however, led to the country's departure from the United Kingdom. In the referendum of September 18, 2014, voters were asked to answer the question of whether Scotland should become an independent state. 44.7% voted "yes," while the majority voted against independence. A new referendum had been set as a goal for 2020, but the process did not move forward, among other reasons due to the coronavirus pandemic. The issue returned dynamically after the results of the local elections held across the United Kingdom in May 2026. In England, the right-wing populist Reform UK party, under the Euroskeptic Nigel Farage, recorded a strong rise. His party now appears as one of the main opposition forces, while he himself is considered a likely contender for power in the next general elections.

For the traditionally more left-leaning Scotland, such a development constitutes a serious political challenge, which it will find hard to accept without reactions. Elena Ananieva, head of the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated to NEWS.ru that the situation does not depend only on the will of the Scottish authorities. For this reason, she estimates that the chances of holding a referendum remain limited. "The Scots, in my opinion, do not massively desire leaving the United Kingdom. About 50% of the population supports independence—perhaps a little less or a little more, depending on the economic situation. Therefore, it is not realistic to claim that everyone there desires sovereignty," she stressed.

The future of the United Kingdom: Can a domino of secessions begin?

Scotland is not the only region of the United Kingdom where independence tendencies exist. In 2014, the nationalist party of Wales had stated that it wished to follow Edinburgh's example and promote a referendum. However, the vote never took place. According to recent polls, about a third of the residents of Wales support independence. In Northern Ireland, in 2024, Michelle O’Neill, leader of Sinn Féin, was elected First Minister. She has advocated for holding a referendum to leave the United Kingdom and unite with the Republic of Ireland, speaking of a "decade of opportunity." International relations expert Malek Dudakov, speaking to NEWS.ru, estimated that a "parade of sovereignties" could appear in the United Kingdom, although not immediately. "In Wales, for the first time in a long time, the local nationalist party is expected to play a decisive role in forming the new government. In Northern Ireland, for the first time in history, the leading role is held not by the unionists—the traditional supporters of London—but by Irish nationalists. That is why I consider the situation in Northern Ireland to be the most fragile," he noted.

Why the weakening of Britain serves Russia

According to Malek Dudakov, such a development could work in Russia's favor, as the breakup or weakening of the United Kingdom would limit its geopolitical role in Europe. "For us, any weakening of Great Britain, any potential dissolution of this country into separate parts, would be beneficial. Britain today constitutes the face of the entire anti-Russian coalition in Europe," Dudakov concluded.

The critical question: Referendum or political tug-of-war?

The new Scottish request for a referendum does not automatically mean that the vote will take place. London still has the final word, while without the British government's consent and international recognition, any unilateral move by Edinburgh could lead to a deep institutional crisis. However, the re-emergence of the issue shows that the United Kingdom is entering a new period of internal pressures. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are following different political trajectories than London, a fact that reinforces scenarios for a more unstable future. Whether this pressure will lead to an actual breakup or remain a tool of political negotiation will depend on London's decisions, the momentum of local movements, and broader geopolitical balances.

www.bankingnews.gr